Recent Articles

I applaud Yahoo for hiring Marissa Mayer as CEO, but it [sounds like she has fallen into a futile search for the holy grail on the web](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/yahoo-s-mayer-sees-future-in-personalized-mobile-web.html):

>“There is a way that you can introduce advertising such that it’s not intrusive, it actually adds value to the end user, and it actually enhances the experience,” Mayer said. “And that’s what we need to work on.”

I wish her the best of luck on the pursuit, but it seems like a fools pursuit to me. An ad is an ad. There are good ads, and there are bad ads. The problem is that there exists only a precious few companies willing to take the time and money to create the good ads.

It’s not a problem of placement, or display, it’s a content problem. Until we reach such time that bad ads no longer work, advertisers will have little motivation to go out and create a truly good ad. Mayer can try to force this, but ultimately she still will need bad ads to pay the bills.

I’d offer up iAds of proof of this. You don’t see many, but when you do they are much better than most other ads on iOS. That said, Apple seems to be having a tough time filling the spots.

Apple is having a tough time with it.

Facebook and Google don’t care enough to even bother. So can Mayer succeed where Apple has seemingly failed?

Yes, she can, but it won’t be easy or fast. I also wonder how lucrative it will be given that you are asking for more money to be spent making better ads, so will advertisers really be willing to pay the same high rates for placement? I’m skeptical.

[*The View From Fuji* posts a great tip](http://theviewfromfuji.tumblr.com/post/41329858242/dropbox-selective-sync) which allows you to store your files in Dropbox, but not on any Mac. It’s a clever solution to a problem that [I see with Dropbox](https://brooksreview.net/2013/01/archiving-cloud/), but it’s not the best solution.

Essentially you add files and folders to Dropbox as normal, and after they are uploaded you use the Selective Sync feature to no longer sync that folder with your Mac. Thus all that data is just in the Dropbox cloud.

The problem? This works well for iOS, since you can browse all the files in the Dropbox app, but it doesn’t work well on the desktop where you would have to browse those files on the Dropbox website. So yes, the files are not on your Mac (or any Mac), but they also are now not easily useable on any Mac.

What is the job of a stock market analyst, you know the people who set lofty expectations for financial performance of publicly traded companies (i.e. the people who set forecasts that Apple never meets), what is their job?

I found a lot of definitions, but [let’s go with The Free Dictionary’s](http://www.thefreedictionary.com/market+analyst) (([I much prefer this definition](http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/definition-of-a-stock-analyst/318193).)) :

> an expert who studies financial data (on credit or securities or sales or financial patterns etc.) and recommends appropriate business actions

In other words it is the job of these analysts to do a couple of things:

1. Study and know the market.
2. Recommend actions.

That means that these analysts need to make the most accurate guess that they can for the future performance of a company so that investors, whom the analyst works for, can make the most informed decision of when to buy and sell a particular stock. (Close enough, well, closer than analysts get to doing their job anyways.)

Given that definition, why are stories worded: “Company A missed expectations”? Shouldn’t the correct wording be: “Analyst John posted a bad guidance”? Of course it should be, but no one actually cares about that analyst’s ability to predict the future, because trying predicting the future is futile. So instead we look at who failed to meet a goal set by a person with a business card that reads “analyst”.

*Side Note: I just promoted myself to “Senior Analyst” here at The Brooks Review, please cite me using that title, so that my words carry weight with the likes of CNN, NYT, WSJ, Reuters, et al.*

When people refer to “guidances”, “expectations”, and so forth, they are really just referring to an outsiders best guess, formed by analyzing historic data. In other words: this is not the company themselves saying where they expect to be next quarter, it’s just a third party saying where *they think* a company should be based on an analysts best guess.

And yet, these guesses are being reported as if the company actually has a duty to meet them — and has failed if they do not meet them.

This is really like readers trying to guess how long my next post will be, and then getting mad at me if they are wrong about that guess. In other words: it’s the dumbest fucking thing I can think of to try and predict.

[Relly Annett-Baker writing about her own depression](http://rel.ly/2013/01/depression-and-me/):

>That’s what depression does. It takes something that should be joyous and challenging and full of discoveries, and turns it into a time of loneliness, fear and a desperate feeling of not being good enough. Of shredding every last ounce of self-esteem and self-respect. It turns you into your worst enemy. It feeds off your inner self doubt.

Fascinating read, and scary to think how “silent” depression is — something that many people don’t know they have and those around them may not be able to help with. Even then, even with all the help, sometimes, well sometimes…

[Bill Rigby reporting for Reuters](http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/01/22/us-microsoft-book-idUKBRE90L04320130122):

>”For Microsoft to really get back in the game seriously, you need a big change in management,” said Joachim Kempin, who worked at Microsoft between 1983 and 2002, overseeing the sales of Windows software to computer makers for part of that time. “As much as I respect Steve Ballmer, he may be part of that in the end.”

This is a very damning report about Ballmer and Microsoft’s board. There’s a few things about it that make me take the report with a large grain of salt:

1. Kempin left in 2002, which means Ballmer was only CEO for two years while Kempin was there. I’m doubtful that was enough time to form the opinions he currently holds, which means his insight into Ballmer is less insider and more outsider with insider reports.
2. I know nothing of Kempin and so this could be like listening to advice from Warren Buffet, or Donald Trump.

Even given those caveats, if true, this is a damning statement:

>”They missed all the opportunities they were talking about when I was still in the company. Tablets, phones…we had a tablet going, we had tablet software when Windows XP came out, it was never followed up properly,” said Kempin.

I assume he doesn’t mean a convertible PC, but I think there’s a simple reason why Microsoft wouldn’t want to release a tablet back in early 2000-2002 — they wouldn’t want to cannibalize PC sales. Whereas Apple doesn’t care if it is their own products cannibalizing sales, Microsoft does. ([See this post](http://rampantinnovation.com/2013/01/15/one-strategy-one-pl/) for reasons why.)

Still, I agree, [Ballmer is going to run the ship into the ground](https://brooksreview.net/2012/11/microsofts-guy/).